By Otto Acosta, Offerpad Research Team
A homeowner who listed a single-family home in St. Louis in May 2023 had better-than-even odds of selling above the asking price. More than half of the homes that sold there that month closed above list. Three years later, in May 2026, the share is still close to half, at 47.7%. In Austin, where homes a few years ago routinely drew five and ten offers, fewer than one in six sellers now gets above asking.
That is the gap between two American housing markets in 2026, both inside the same country, the same broader economy, and the same set of national mortgage rates.
An Offerpad analysis of public housing data from the Redfin Data Center, covering single-family home sales across the 15 metros where Offerpad operates, maps where above-list sales remain common, where they have effectively ended, and how the pattern shifts by season. The figures below are market-wide Redfin metro data, not Offerpad transactions.
The broader trend is consistent. Across these 15 metros, the average share of single-family homes selling above list has fallen from about 29% in May 2023 to about 22% in May 2026 (simple average across the 15 metros, Redfin Data Center). Supply rebuilt over the same window. In May 2026, months of supply ran from under two months in the tightest metros to more than five in the softest. The country has tilted toward buyers in most places, with a few holdouts.
But “most of the country” is not “all of it.” Two markets still feel like 2022.
Where Homes Still Sell Above Asking Price in 2026
As of May 2026, the share of single-family homes selling above the original list price ranged from 14.3% in Jacksonville to 47.7% in St. Louis. That is more than a 3-to-1 gap between the coolest and the hottest market in the same month.
May 2026 Standings: Share of Homes Sold Above List Price
| Rank | Market | Share Sold Above List (May 2026) | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis | 47.7% | Hot |
| 2 | Columbus, OH | 40.1% | Hot |
| 3 | Atlanta | 24.0% | Warm |
| 4 | Indianapolis | 22.7% | Warm |
| 5 | Charlotte | 22.2% | Warm |
| 6 | Raleigh | 21.9% | Warm |
| 7 | Las Vegas | 21.3% | Warm |
| 8 | Dallas | 17.3% | Cooling |
| 9 | Tampa | 17.0% | Cooling |
| 10 | Phoenix | 15.9% | Cooling |
| 11 | Orlando | 15.4% | Cooling |
| 12 | Austin | 15.2% | Cooling |
| 13 | Houston | 14.9% | Cooled |
| 14 | San Antonio | 14.9% | Cooled |
| 15 | Jacksonville | 14.3% | Cooled |
Source: Redfin Data Center, metro-level single-family home data, May 2026.
Two markets stand apart from everything else. St. Louis sits in a category of its own at 47.7%. Columbus, Ohio, is the only other market still clearly in bidding-war territory at 40.1%. After those two, the drop is sharp. Atlanta at 24.0% is third, and from there every market sits below 25%. The simple average across the 15 metros is 21.7%.
At the bottom of the table, seven markets sit at or below 17% in May 2026, and six of the seven are in Texas or Florida (Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa). In these cities, at least 83% of recent sellers took offers at or below their list price.
How Many Homes Sell Above Asking Now? The Trend Since 2023
Comparing the same month across years keeps the seasonal picture consistent. Measured every May, the average share of homes selling above the original list price across these 15 metros has fallen by about a quarter in three years, and the decline has flattened over the past year.
| Month | 15-Metro Average Share Sold Above List |
|---|---|
| May 2023 | 29.1% |
| May 2024 | 25.4% |
| May 2025 | 21.8% |
| May 2026 | 21.7% |
Source: Redfin Data Center, metro-level single-family home data, simple average across the 15 metros, May of each year.
A little over one in five homes across these metros sold above asking in May 2026, down from closer to one in three in May 2023. The share barely moved between May 2025 and May 2026, a sign that the cooling has largely run its course in most markets. What the average hides is how concentrated the remaining bidding-war activity has become.
The Holdouts: Where Sellers Still Hold the Cards
St. Louis is the bidding-war capital of the group. Even after three years of national cooling, 47.7% of single-family homes sold there in May 2026 closed above the original list price. By early summer, that share has historically climbed higher still. Averaged across the available years, June in St. Louis runs at 55.3% above list, the highest monthly reading of any metro here.
The reason has more to do with what has not changed in St. Louis than with what has changed elsewhere. Inventory stays tight at about two months of supply, prices remain among the most affordable of any major metro in the group at a median of $318,750, and homes move fast, with a median of 20 days on market. St. Louis is also one of only two metros where the average home sells above its list price rather than below it, at a sale-to-list ratio of 100.6%.
Columbus, Ohio, follows similar logic. At 40.1% in May 2026, Columbus is the only other market still clearly in bidding-war territory, and its typical May runs near 53.8% above list. Like St. Louis, Columbus pairs relative affordability, a median sale price of $385,000, with a supply of about two and a half months and an average sale that lands just above list at 100.1%.
After those two, the next tier (Atlanta, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Las Vegas) sits between 21% and 24%. Bidding wars happen in these markets but are not the default outcome. Roughly one in four to one in five sales closes above list, and seller leverage tends to be selective by neighborhood and condition.
Where Bidding Wars Have Effectively Ended
At the bottom of the standings, a cluster of Sun Belt metros now looks like a genuine buyer’s market: Jacksonville (14.3%), Houston (14.9%), San Antonio (14.9%), Austin (15.2%), Orlando (15.4%), and Phoenix (15.9%). Tampa (17.0%) sits just above them.
Austin is the clearest case. As recently as 2022, the metro was a poster child for the pandemic-era boom, with out-of-state cash buyers, multiple-offer chaos, and rapid price growth fueled by tech relocations. In May 2026, the median single-family home in Austin spent 57 days on the market, about 37% of active listings had cut their price, and roughly 15% of homes sold above asking against a supply of nearly five months. The cycle did not just slow. It inverted.
Texas as a whole has cooled hard. Three of the four softest markets in the group (Houston, San Antonio, and Austin) are Texan, and San Antonio carries the heaviest overhang of all, at 5.2 months of supply and a median 72 days on market. Dallas at 17.3% is the warmest of the four. Inventory in Texas markets rebuilt faster than in much of the country, in part because builder activity kept going through 2023 and 2024 even as buyer demand softened.
Florida shows a similar pattern. Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville all sit at 17% or below. The three Florida metros share something with the Texas markets: the seasonal swing in bidding-war activity is among the smallest in the group. Buyers and sellers in these markets do not see the spring spike that defines Midwestern and Carolina housing patterns.
Where Bidding Wars Have Cooled the Most Since 2023
Comparing each market’s May 2026 share to its May 2023 share shows where the change has been steepest. Using the same month in both years keeps seasonal noise out of the comparison.
| Rank | Market | May 2023 Share Above List | May 2026 Share Above List | Decline (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas | 31.0% | 17.3% | -13.7 |
| 2 | Columbus, OH | 53.4% | 40.1% | -13.3 |
| 3 | Indianapolis | 35.5% | 22.7% | -12.8 |
| 4 | Charlotte | 33.1% | 22.2% | -10.9 |
| 5 | Raleigh | 32.6% | 21.9% | -10.7 |
| 6 | Atlanta | 34.5% | 24.0% | -10.5 |
| 7 | Houston | 21.8% | 14.9% | -6.9 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 21.0% | 14.9% | -6.1 |
| 9 | Tampa | 22.7% | 17.0% | -5.7 |
| 10 | St. Louis | 53.3% | 47.7% | -5.6 |
| 11 | Orlando | 20.1% | 15.4% | -4.7 |
| 12 | Jacksonville | 17.3% | 14.3% | -3.0 |
| 13 | Phoenix | 18.9% | 15.9% | -3.0 |
| 14 | Austin | 18.0% | 15.2% | -2.8 |
| 15 | Las Vegas | 23.9% | 21.3% | -2.6 |
Source: Redfin Data Center, metro-level single-family home data, May 2023 compared with May 2026.
Dallas cooled the most, giving up 13.7 points in three years, with Columbus close behind at 13.3. Indianapolis lost 12.8 points, and the Carolinas came next, as Charlotte and Raleigh each shed close to 11. Atlanta rounds out the group that gave up 10 points or more. Most of these were pandemic-era migration stories, and inventory in each has rebuilt.
The pattern holds up: the bigger the boom, the bigger the cooldown. Markets that surged hardest during 2021 and 2022 have given up the most ground. St. Louis and Las Vegas held up best of all, each down less than 6 points, but for different reasons. St. Louis started so high that it remains the hottest market even after cooling, while Las Vegas never ran as hot to begin with.
When Do Most Homes Sell Above Asking? The Seasonal Pattern
Bidding wars are not spread evenly across the calendar. Averaged across the 15 metros, spring runs far hotter than winter.
| Month | 15-Metro Average Share Sold Above List |
|---|---|
| January | 24.2% |
| February | 27.2% |
| March | 31.8% |
| April | 36.2% |
| May | 37.9% |
| June | 37.2% |
| July | 34.4% |
| August | 29.8% |
| September | 26.5% |
| October | 25.1% |
| November | 23.6% |
| December | 21.8% |
Source: Redfin Data Center, metro-level single-family home data, month-of-year averages across the 15 metros.
May is the seasonal peak at 37.9%, with June close behind. December is the trough at 21.8%. The 16-point gap between peak and trough is larger than the roughly 7-point cooling these metros have seen since May 2023, which means where you land in the calendar year can swing a market’s bidding-war intensity more than three years of cooling did.
A single-month reading, then, is a floor or a ceiling depending on the season. A market reading in the low 20s in winter can run well into the 30s by late spring, even after years of cooling.
Seasonal Swing by Market
The size of the swing varies a lot. In Columbus, the share of homes selling above list moves by about 24 points between its low and high months. In Jacksonville, it moves less than 10.
| Rank | Market | Seasonal Swing (pp) | Peak Month | Trough Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus, OH | 24.1 pp | May (53.8%) | Dec. (29.7%) |
| 2 | St. Louis | 22.0 pp | Jun. (55.3%) | Jan. (33.3%) |
| 3 | Austin | 21.1 pp | Apr. (38.9%) | Dec. (17.8%) |
| 4 | Dallas | 20.7 pp | May (41.8%) | Dec. (21.1%) |
| 5 | Raleigh | 19.7 pp | May (44.6%) | Dec. (24.9%) |
| 6 | Indianapolis | 18.9 pp | May (38.7%) | Dec. (19.8%) |
| 7 | Charlotte | 16.8 pp | May (41.5%) | Dec. (24.7%) |
| 8 | Atlanta | 16.6 pp | May (41.3%) | Dec. (24.7%) |
| 9 | Las Vegas | 15.6 pp | May (37.1%) | Dec. (21.5%) |
| 10 | Phoenix | 14.3 pp | May (33.8%) | Dec. (19.5%) |
| 11 | Houston | 13.1 pp | Jun. (29.0%) | Dec. (15.9%) |
| 12 | San Antonio | 11.5 pp | Jun. (30.5%) | Nov. (19.0%) |
| 13 | Tampa | 11.4 pp | May (30.1%) | Dec. (18.7%) |
| 14 | Orlando | 11.1 pp | Jun. (28.2%) | Dec. (17.1%) |
| 15 | Jacksonville | 9.9 pp | May (26.9%) | Dec. (17.0%) |
Source: Redfin Data Center, metro-level single-family home data, month-of-year averages per market.
Markets with cold winters and clear spring thaws (Columbus, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Atlanta) see the biggest swings. Sun Belt markets with steady year-round migration see the smallest, and the Florida metros stay within a tight band all year.
For sellers, this means the timing decision matters more in some markets than in others. In Columbus, listing in late spring rather than in December is the difference between a market where more than half of homes sell above list and one where fewer than a third do. In Jacksonville or Orlando, the same calendar choice moves the needle only a few points.
What Bidding Wars Predict About Days on Market and Price Drops
The share of homes selling above list travels closely with two other signs of buyer competition. Across the 15 metros in May 2026:
- Correlation between share sold above list and median days on market: -0.62
- Correlation between share sold above list and share of listings with a price cut: -0.58
Both relationships are negative. Where more homes sell above asking, homes also tend to sell faster. St. Louis, with 47.7% of homes selling above list, had a median of 20 days on market. San Antonio, at 14.9%, sat at 72 days. The link to price cuts points the same way, though it is looser. Metros with more above-list sales generally see fewer listings dropping their price, with exceptions: Indianapolis pairs one of the fastest markets in the group (a median 18 days) with its highest share of price cuts (44.3%), a reminder that no single number captures a market on its own.
In practice, the three measures describe the same market condition from different angles. A current Austin or San Antonio seller watching listings sit for two to three months is also seeing more price cuts and fewer above-list closings. A St. Louis or Columbus seller sees the opposite.
The Peak: How High the Two Holdouts Run
The concentration at the top of the standings is easy to miss in an annual average. St. Louis and Columbus are the only two metros in the group whose typical peak month clears 50% above list. Averaged across the available years, St. Louis runs at 55.3% above list in June, and Columbus at 53.8% in May. No other market comes close.
Both have cooled from their recent highs. In May 2023, 53.3% of St. Louis home sales closed above list; by May 2026 that share had eased to 47.7%. Columbus fell further over the same three Mays, from 53.4% to 40.1%. Even after that slide, St. Louis at 47.7% is the only market in the group above 45% in May 2026, and St. Louis and Columbus remain the only two where the average home still sells above its asking price.
What the Numbers Show for 2026
The data points to a few patterns that shape any current housing decision.
Bidding wars are now a regional story, not a national one. Outside St. Louis and Columbus, no market in the group cleared 25% in May 2026. National coverage of multiple-offer situations no longer reflects what most sellers will actually encounter.
Sun Belt and Sun Belt-adjacent cooling is the dominant trend. Dallas, Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, and Indianapolis all gave up double-digit ground since 2023. These are the same markets that drew waves of pandemic-era migration. Inventory has rebuilt, and so has buyer leverage.
Tight supply and affordability go together at the top. The two markets where bidding wars persist, St. Louis and Columbus, pair some of the tightest inventory in the group with mid-to-affordable prices. Buyers priced out of pricier metros have stayed where homes feel within reach, and competition for the limited supply has held up. Affordability alone does not guarantee heat, though: San Antonio is one of the cheapest metros here and one of the softest, weighed down by more than five months of supply.
Seasonality still has teeth in every market. Spring outpaces winter in all 15 metros. Even in cooled markets, the spring listing window draws meaningfully more competitive offers than the winter one.
For buyers, the cooling has widened negotiating room outside the two hot markets. The move from about 29% of homes selling above list in May 2023 to about 22% in May 2026 means a typical 2026 buyer faces less competition than a 2023 buyer did across most of the country.
Methodology
This metro-level analysis uses market-wide data from the Redfin Data Center for single-family home sales, as of May 2026, across the 15 metropolitan markets where Offerpad operates: Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte, Columbus (OH), Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, Raleigh, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Tampa. Columbia, South Carolina, where Offerpad also operates, is not covered by Redfin’s metro market tracker and is excluded from the rankings.
“Share sold above list” is Redfin’s measure of the share of home sales that closed above the original list price. These are market-wide figures for each metro, not Offerpad transactions. Year-over-year and multi-year comparisons use the same month (May) in each year so that seasonal patterns do not distort the change. Month-of-year figures are averages across the available years of Redfin data for each market. The simple 15-metro average weights each metro equally rather than by sales volume.
Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
